@PhDThesis{Santos:2017:ClPrFu,
author = "Santos, S{\'e}rgio Rodrigo Quadros dos",
title = "Caracter{\'{\i}}sticas dos eventos extremos secos e chuvosos em
diferentes escalas de tempo na amaz{\^o}nia: climatologia e
proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es futuras",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2017",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2017-05-12",
keywords = "climatologia, proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es, extremos, chuvosos,
Amaz{\^o}nia, climatology, projections, extremes, rainy,
Amazonia.",
abstract = "O presente estudo visa uma caracteriza{\c{c}}{\~a}o detalhada
dos eventos secos e chuvosos extremos na Amaz{\^o}nia utilizando
o SPI, com dados de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o mensal do GPCC, GPCP,
CPC e Era-interim, simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es e proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es
em dois cen{\'a}rios opostos (RCP4.5 e RCP8.5) dos modelos
HadGEM-ES e ECHAM-6. As s{\'e}ries temporais dos SPI-3, SPI-6 e
SPI-12, usando dados de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o do GPCP, GPCC,
CPC e Era-interim sobre a regi{\~a}o Amaz{\^o}nica apresentaram
uma boa concord{\^a}ncia temporal entre si. A regi{\~a}o
apresentou tend{\^e}ncias significativas de aumento dos eventos
secos e chuvosos de curta (SPI-3), m{\'e}dia (SPI-6) e longa
(SPI-12) dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o no GPCC e GPCP. Com
rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\`a}s frequ{\^e}ncias dos eventos secos e
chuvosos extremos e moderados, observou-se uma
distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o heterog{\^e}nea ao longo das
esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es do ano. Constatou-se que a seca de 1998 foi
mais intensa que as de 2005 e 2010, que tiveram
dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o mais prolongada. Avaliando o desempenho dos
modelos HadGEM2-ES e ECHAM-6 em representar o SPI m{\'e}dio sobre
a Amaz{\^o}nia no per{\'{\i}}odo de 1901a 2005, evidenciou-se
que os valores observados nos modelos foram distintos em
rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o ao GPCC. Esta defici{\^e}ncia na
representa{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos extremos secos e de chuva est{\'a}
relacionada, principalmente, aos erros sistem{\'a}ticos de
superestimativa e subestimativa das precipita{\c{c}}{\~o}es
mensais. Na an{\'a}lise das frequ{\^e}ncias dos eventos secos e
chuvosos moderados e extremos observou-se que os de seca
apresentam um padr{\~a}o espacial mais homog{\^e}neo que os de
chuva. As proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es nos cen{\'a}rios de
mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas dos modelos HadGEM2-ES e ECHAM-6
para frequ{\^e}ncias dos eventos secos e chuvosos moderados e
extremos, no per{\'{\i}}odo de 2015 a 2050, tamb{\'e}m
apresentaram uma distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o espacial
heterog{\^e}nea ao longo das esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es do ano em ambos
os cen{\'a}rios considerados. Al{\'e}m disso, n{\~a}o foram
observadas grandes diferen{\c{c}}as nos valores das
frequ{\^e}ncias dos eventos moderados e extremos entre os
cen{\'a}rios, uma vez que as varia{\c{c}}{\~o}es das
frequ{\^e}ncias destes eventos s{\~a}o similares, tanto no
cen{\'a}rio intermedi{\'a}rio (RCP4.5) como no pessimista
(RCP8.5). ABSTRACT: The present study aims at a detailed
characterization of extreme dry and rainy events in Amazonia using
SPI based on four precipitation datasets GPCC, GPCP, CPC and
Era-interim, simulations and projections in two opposite scenarios
(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of HadGEM-ES and ECHAM-6 Earth-System models.
The time series of the SPI-3, SPI-6 and SPI-12, using GPCP, GPCC,
CPC and Era-interim monthly rainfall data over Amazonia, presented
a good temporal concordance among themselves. The region presented
an increasing trends of dry and rainy events of short (SPI-3),
mean (SPI-6) and long time (SPI-12) in GPCC and GPCP databases.
Regarding the frequencies of extreme and moderate dry and rainy
events, a heterogeneous distribution was observed throughout the
seasons. Moreover, it was verified that, the 1998 drought was more
intense than those of 2005 and 2010 which last longer. Evaluating
the performance of the HadGEM2-ES and ECHAM-6 models in
representing the average SPI over Amazonia between 1901 and 2005,
it was evidenced that the average observed values in the models
were distinct in relation to GPCC. This deficiency to represent
extremes of dry and rainy events is mainly related to the
systematic errors of over and underestimation of the monthly
precipitation. In the frequency analysis of moderate and extreme
dry and rainy events, it was observed that the dry events
presented a more homogeneous spatial pattern than the rainy ones.
The HadGEM2-ES and ECHAM-6 climatic change scenarios projections
of moderate and extreme dry and rainy events frequencies for 2015
to 2050, also showed a heterogeneous spatial distribution
throughout the seasons in both scenarios. Furthermore, there were
no major differences in the frequencies between the scenarios,
since the frequencies variations were similar in the intermediate
(RCP4.5) and in the worst scenario (RCP8.5).",
committee = "Cavalcanti, Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque (presidente) and
Sansigolo, Clovis Angeli (orientador) and Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio
and Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de and Braga, C{\'e}lia Campos",
englishtitle = "Characteristics of extreme dry and rainy events on different time
scales in amazonia: climatology and future projections.",
language = "pt",
pages = "258",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3NMBDN8",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3NMBDN8",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}